Fringe: The War Between the Universes Was Inevitable

A lot of fans seem confused how there could be a war between the universes if Peter never existed. After all, wasn't he the whole reason Walter originally crossed over? And didn't his conversation with young Olivia cause Walternate to figure out about the Blue Universe? The answer to both questions is yes. But I think were still meant to infer that the war between the universes was inevitable.

In "Peter," Walter said Belly was always urging them to cross over to steal more technology. We can assume, therefore, that the two would have done so at some point regardless. Also, Walter alluded to a "mistake" in "The Day We Died," suggesting the first crossing may have been an unintended error.

Once you assume the crossing was inevitable, then so was Walternate's discovery of the Blue Universe. Indeed, it seems odd to think Walter would be able to discover the Red Universe while Walternate would remain oblivious to the Blue. At a minimum, he would have figured out what was up once his universe started collapsing. Also, we know Belly approached Walternate at some point, presumably to get more technology.

So, the war was inevitable, too, it was just a matter of time. By removing Peter from the timeline, however, the Observers made the conflict less personal between Walter and Walternate, setting the stage for their future cooperation.

Fringe: Why Season 4 Should Be the Last

Fringe was only recently renewed, but the debate has already begun about whether Season 4 should be the last. Some argue the odds of a fifth season (while not impossible) are so slim that the writers should take the opportunity to end the series well, rather than risk leaving viewers hanging. Others counter that, because the series could conceivably continue, writing S4 is if it were the last might leave the writers with no story to tell in S5.

Both arguments have merit, so I decided to compare the Expected Value of the two aproaches to see if we can resolve this objectively. For those unfamiliar, Expected Value is simply a weighted average of all possible outcomes. For example, the probability of a six-sided die landing on any one side is 1/6 or about .167. The Expected Value of a die roll is thus 3.5 because .167(1)+.167(2)+.167(3)+.167(4)
+.167(5)+.167(6)=3.5.

So, what does this have to do with Fringe? Let's assume S4 and S5 could each rate a maximum of 10 points in quality. Let's further stipulate that the probability of the show's being renewed for S5 is around 35%, a rough but reasonable estimate offered by one proponent of the second approach (i.e., that the writers should hedge their bets on S5). By comparing the Expected Value of each approach, we can get a sense of which course is preferable.

Approach #1: The writers write S4 as if it's the last. There's a 65% chance they're right, in which case S4 scores a perfect 10 in quality. But there's also a 35% chance they get renewed after blowing their load in S4. In that case, S4 is still great but S5 suffers and rates only a 5 in quality. The Expected Value of this first approach is thus 11.75 because .65(10)+.35(15)=11.75.

Approach #2: The writers write S4 with an eye towards renewal. There's a 65% chance they're wrong, in which case S4 rates only a 5 in quality because they leave viewers hanging. But there's also a 35% chance they're right, in which case both S4 and S5 rate perfect 10s in quality. The Expected Value of this second approach is thus 10.25 because .65(5)+.35(20)=10.25.

From a probabalistic perspective, Approach #1 is objectively superior to Approach #2 because it maxmizes expected quality despite the possibility the writers might be caught with their pants down in S5. In fact, the same is true even if you assume that the probability of renewal is more like 49%, though it's a closer call. No matter how you slice it, therefore, the writers would be wise to write S4 under the assumption it's the last.

Fringe: Were the First People Shapeshifters?

My whackadoo theory for the week is that the First People were shapeshifters. If Sam Weiss turns out to be a First Person, this would explain his comment that he's "taller" and "older" than he looks.

Maybe Sam was the source of the shapeshifter technology that Belly gave to Walternate. Perhaps the hybrid soldiers use technology to do what the First People evolved to do naturally.

Fringe: Spooky Action at a Distance

In "6B," Walter described the elderly couple as occupying a state of "emotional quantum entanglement" and quoted Einstein's line about "spooky action at a distance" as justification.

Interestingly, Einstein was being derisive when he described quantum entanglement as spooky action at a distance. He found the very idea of quantum mechanics absurd and insisted that "God doesn't play dice with the universe."

Similarly, the most famous example of quantum entanglement (Schrodinger's Cat) was actually Schrodinger's effort to demonstrate the absurdity of applying the uncertainty principle to everyday objects like people or cats.

Ironically, both "spooky action at a distance" and "Schrodinger's cat" have become part of the lexicon of Quantum Mechanics despite Einstein and Schrodinger's derisive intent!

Fringe: Dramatic Irony

Irony is a divergence between literal and intended meanings. One subset is dramatic irony, where dialogue means one thing to the character speaking it, and another to the audience hearing the line. The classic example of dramatic irony is Oedipus Rex, where the audience knows what will happen to Oedipus long before he does.

The most recent episode of Fringe offered another possible example -- the Observer's line that "It must be hard... being a father." The intended reference was presumably to Walter's dilemma as Peter's father. But I suspect the dialogue will take on a whole new meaning by season's end.

Many, myself included, believe that Bolivia is pregnant with Peter's child. If so, the Observer's line may be even more profound than he realizes. Specifically, Peter and Bolivia's baby may be yet another "unforeseen consequence" of the Observer's saving Peter as a child.

Fringe: The First People Split the Timeline

In "6995 KHz," we learned that the Doomsday Device was created by the First People.  But who were they?

I believe the First People were some ancient, antediluvian civilization like Atlantis. They evolved like modern human beings and developed highly advanced technology. Eventually, they gained the ability to manipulate the very fabric of spacetime (i.e., the "Vacuum").

Unfortunately, one of the First People's spacetime experiments went horribly wrong. The resulting catastrophe erased their fossil record and split the timeline in two. The Doomsday Device is both the source of this catastrophe as well as a possible solution to the split.

The Observers are not the First People. Rather, the former are a race of inter-dimensional beings who, true to their name, have been observing this split in the timeline. The problem is that the Observers have inadvertently became participants, as we saw in "Peter."

Mad Men: Thoughts on "Blowing Smoke"

A few thoughts on "Blowing Smoke," the most recent episode of Mad Men:

* I completely bought Don's stunt.  What I particularly loved was the way it dove-tailed perfectly with Midge's heroin addiction.  That connection transformed what could have been a "very special" storyline into a brilliant metaphor for the firm's relationship with tobacco.

* I also loved how Don's stunt was vindication -- yet again -- for Peggy.  Every time the former reprimands the latter, he turns out to be wrong.  Another great example was Don's admonishment in Season 3 that Peggy was "not an artist" when she complained about the Patio Cola ad.  As we later learned, Peggy was correct that the ad simply didn't work.

* I'm guessing the narrative purpose of Don's stunt was to pave the way for some moralistic moneybags to save the day for SCDP.  Some speculate that savior might be Connie Hilton, but I continue to believe it will be Walt Disney.  Another dark horse: John Linsday, whose aid attended the party with Henry and Betty in "The Summer Man."  I wouldn't be shocked if Lindsay wants SCDP to handle the ads for his mayoral and/or presidential runs.

* More allusions to the privacy theme of this season: Bert suggests that they take their discussion "behind closed doors," while Peggy listens through the divider.

* During the last couple of episodes, I'd begun to question my prediction that Bert Cooper will die.  But last night seemed to confirm that Bert simply has no place at Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce.  The scenes of him wandering around with his shoes saying goodbye sealed his fate in my eyes.

* I thought the scene between Peggy and Dr. Faye was great but would have been even more powerful if the show had developed their friendship more throughout the season.  I would have preferred more scenes of Peggy and Dr. Faye's bonding, and less of Joey and Stan's workplace hijinks.

* I totally bought Megan's lone adulation for Don's publicity stunt.  So much so that I think Don and Megan's frantic hookup "Chinese Wall" would have been more plausible if it had taken place after she praised him in this way.